The Entrepreneurial 3-Pointer

Why starting a business is like shooting from deep

Appendix

Business

Strategy

Author

King Matayo

Published

December 21, 2024

“I’m not afraid to take it. I’ve been shooting that shot my whole life.” – Stephen Curry

The Shot No One Wanted

In the early 2000s, the three-point shot was considered risky. Teams used it sparingly, as a last resort. The conventional wisdom was clear: get closer to the basket for a “better” shot.

Then Stephen Curry arrived. He didn’t just take three-pointers—he built his entire game around them. What was once considered reckless became revolutionary.

Entrepreneurship follows a similar path. What seems crazy to conventional wisdom often becomes the next paradigm shift.

The Risk-Reward Calculation

A three-pointer is worth 50% more than a two-pointer. If you shoot 35% from three, you score 1.05 points per attempt. To match that efficiency from two-point range, you’d need to shoot 52.5%.

Curry’s three-point volume AND efficiency revolutionized the game

Similarly, entrepreneurship offers asymmetric returns. Most startups fail, but successful ones can return 10x, 100x, or even 1000x the initial investment.

The Failure Rate

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about startups:

Most startups don’t survive—but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try

Stephen Curry misses roughly 57% of his three-point attempts. But he keeps shooting because he understands expected value. Entrepreneurs must embrace the same mindset.

Practice Makes Permanent

Curry doesn’t just shoot—he trains with obsessive precision. His pre-game routine includes hundreds of shots from spots he’ll likely never use in the game. Why? Because when the moment comes, execution must be automatic.

The entire NBA followed Curry’s lead

Similarly, successful entrepreneurs don’t wing it. They study markets obsessively, test ideas relentlessly, and build skills before they’re needed.

The Courage to Take the Shot

The hardest part of shooting a three-pointer isn’t the physical act—it’s the decision to take it. The same is true for entrepreneurship. The mechanics of starting a business can be learned. The courage to try cannot be taught.

Three-Point Shooting	Entrepreneurship
33% success rate	~10% startup survival
50% more valuable than 2PT	10-100x potential returns
Requires practice	Requires preparation
Fear of missing	Fear of failure
Game-changing when hot	Industry-disrupting when successful

Lessons for Entrepreneurs

Expected value matters more than success rate - High-risk, high-reward strategies can be optimal
Practice creates confidence - Preparation enables action when opportunity arrives
First movers reshape markets - Curry changed how the entire league plays
Keep shooting - Missing is part of the process
Build for the long term - Curry’s success came from years of development

The Contagious Effect

When Curry proved the three-pointer worked, the entire NBA followed. Teams that clung to mid-range strategies found themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

The same happens in business. When one company proves a new model works—think Uber, Airbnb, or Netflix—the entire industry must adapt or become obsolete.

The question isn’t whether to take the shot. It’s whether you’re willing to miss enough times to eventually make it.

References

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Crown Business.
Thompson, M. (2017). Golden: The Miraculous Rise of Steph Curry. Touchstone.
Startup survival statistics from Bureau of Labor Statistics and CB Insights

--- title: "The Entrepreneurial 3-Pointer" subtitle: "Why starting a business is like shooting from deep" author: - name: "King Matayo" email: kingmatayo.thefirst@gmail.com date: 12/21/2024 image: "../assets/images/business.jpg" categories: [Appendix, Business, Strategy] --- ```{r setup, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE} source("../_common.R") all_shots <- read.csv("../data/allshots-2003-2024.csv") # Curry's three-point evolution curry_3pt <- all_shots %>% filter(namePlayer == "Stephen Curry") %>% filter(distanceShot >= 23) %>% group_by(yearSeason) %>% summarize( attempts = n(), makes = sum(isShotMade == TRUE, na.rm = TRUE), pct = round(makes / attempts * 100, 1) ) # League 3PT trends league_3pt <- all_shots %>% filter(yearSeason >= 2010) %>% group_by(yearSeason) %>% summarize( total = n(), threes = sum(distanceShot >= 23), pct = round(threes / total * 100, 1) ) # Startup statistics startup_stats <- tibble( stage = c("Year 1", "Year 2", "Year 3", "Year 5", "Year 10"), survival_rate = c(80, 70, 60, 50, 30), success_rate = c(20, 15, 12, 10, 8) ) ``` > *"I'm not afraid to take it. I've been shooting that shot my whole life."* – Stephen Curry ## The Shot No One Wanted In the early 2000s, the three-point shot was considered risky. Teams used it sparingly, as a last resort. The conventional wisdom was clear: get closer to the basket for a "better" shot. Then Stephen Curry arrived. He didn't just take three-pointers—he built his entire game around them. What was once considered reckless became revolutionary. **Entrepreneurship follows a similar path.** What seems crazy to conventional wisdom often becomes the next paradigm shift. ## The Risk-Reward Calculation A three-pointer is worth 50% more than a two-pointer. If you shoot 35% from three, you score 1.05 points per attempt. To match that efficiency from two-point range, you'd need to shoot 52.5%. ```{r curry-efficiency, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE} #| fig-cap: "Curry's three-point volume AND efficiency revolutionized the game" highchart() %>% hc_chart(type = "column") %>% hc_title(text = "Stephen Curry: Three-Point Evolution") %>% hc_subtitle(text = "Volume and efficiency over time") %>% hc_xAxis(categories = curry_3pt$yearSeason) %>% hc_yAxis_multiples( list(title = list(text = "Attempts")), list(title = list(text = "FG%"), opposite = TRUE, max = 50) ) %>% hc_add_series(name = "3PT Attempts", data = curry_3pt$attempts, color = "#1D428A", type = "column") %>% hc_add_series(name = "3PT%", data = curry_3pt$pct, color = "#FDB927", type = "spline", yAxis = 1) %>% hc_add_theme(hc_theme_flatdark()) ``` Similarly, entrepreneurship offers asymmetric returns. Most startups fail, but successful ones can return 10x, 100x, or even 1000x the initial investment. ## The Failure Rate Here's the uncomfortable truth about startups: ```{r startup-survival, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE} #| fig-cap: "Most startups don't survive—but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try" highchart() %>% hc_chart(type = "areaspline") %>% hc_title(text = "Startup Survival Rates") %>% hc_subtitle(text = "The odds are against you—just like a contested three-pointer") %>% hc_xAxis(categories = startup_stats$stage) %>% hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "% Still Operating"), max = 100) %>% hc_add_series(name = "Survival Rate", data = startup_stats$survival_rate, color = "#e94560", fillOpacity = 0.3) %>% hc_add_theme(hc_theme_flatdark()) ``` Stephen Curry misses roughly 57% of his three-point attempts. But he keeps shooting because he understands expected value. Entrepreneurs must embrace the same mindset. ## Practice Makes Permanent Curry doesn't just shoot—he trains with obsessive precision. His pre-game routine includes hundreds of shots from spots he'll likely never use in the game. Why? Because when the moment comes, execution must be automatic. ```{r league-adoption, warning=FALSE, message=FALSE} #| fig-cap: "The entire NBA followed Curry's lead" highchart() %>% hc_chart(type = "areaspline") %>% hc_title(text = "League-Wide Three-Point Revolution") %>% hc_subtitle(text = "Percentage of all shots from three-point range") %>% hc_xAxis(categories = league_3pt$yearSeason) %>% hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "% of Shots from 3PT"), min = 20, max = 45) %>% hc_add_series(name = "3PT Rate", data = league_3pt$pct, color = "#1D428A", fillOpacity = 0.3) %>% hc_add_theme(hc_theme_flatdark()) ``` Similarly, successful entrepreneurs don't wing it. They study markets obsessively, test ideas relentlessly, and build skills before they're needed. ## The Courage to Take the Shot The hardest part of shooting a three-pointer isn't the physical act—it's the decision to take it. The same is true for entrepreneurship. The mechanics of starting a business can be learned. The courage to try cannot be taught. | Three-Point Shooting | Entrepreneurship | |---------------------|------------------| | 33% success rate | ~10% startup survival | | 50% more valuable than 2PT | 10-100x potential returns | | Requires practice | Requires preparation | | Fear of missing | Fear of failure | | Game-changing when hot | Industry-disrupting when successful | ::: {.callout-tip} ## Lessons for Entrepreneurs 1. **Expected value matters more than success rate** - High-risk, high-reward strategies can be optimal 2. **Practice creates confidence** - Preparation enables action when opportunity arrives 3. **First movers reshape markets** - Curry changed how the entire league plays 4. **Keep shooting** - Missing is part of the process 5. **Build for the long term** - Curry's success came from years of development ::: ## The Contagious Effect When Curry proved the three-pointer worked, the entire NBA followed. Teams that clung to mid-range strategies found themselves at a competitive disadvantage. The same happens in business. When one company proves a new model works—think Uber, Airbnb, or Netflix—the entire industry must adapt or become obsolete. **The question isn't whether to take the shot. It's whether you're willing to miss enough times to eventually make it.** --- ## References - Ries, E. (2011). *The Lean Startup*. Crown Business. - Thompson, M. (2017). *Golden: The Miraculous Rise of Steph Curry*. Touchstone. - Startup survival statistics from Bureau of Labor Statistics and CB Insights